The Golden Boot isn’t just about goals. It’s about rhythm, role, health, and sometimes even a bit of luck. Yet this season, the Premier League’s scoring crown feels like it will come down to two men who have defined finishing over the last three years: Mohamed Salah, Liverpool’s ever-reliable Egyptian King, and Erling Haaland, Manchester City’s Norse powerhouse. 

Both have very different paths to the same target. Salah is trying to show that consistency still beats raw power, while Haaland is looking to remind the league that when fit, nobody scores more than him. 

let’s dive into the numbers. 

Salah is 33, but you wouldn’t know it from the way he ended last season. His 29 league goals came with the same trademark mix of speed, precision, and ruthlessness in tight spaces. For a decade, defenders have known exactly what he wants to do, "cut inside on that left foot," and still can’t stop it.

The data backs up his timelessness: 

📊0.69 goals per 90 (98th percentile among forwards) 
📊xG: 0.65 per 90 (99th percentile) 
📊Over 3 shots per 90, with 40% hitting the target

And he remains Liverpool’s first-choice penalty taker, a cushion that could easily add 5–7 goals across the season. 

But the challenge for Salah isn’t ability. It’s distribution. Liverpool have spent big on attacking reinforcements, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, and possibly Alexander Isak. That means Salah may no longer carry the entire scoring load. He will still lead the line on the right, but he might see fewer chances than in past seasons. In other words, Salah’s efficiency may hold, but his volume could dip.

Haaland calls last season “a disappointment.” That’s what happens when you only score 22 goals in 31 appearances. For almost anyone else, that’s a career year. For Haaland, it’s an off one. 

Even in his “down” season, his numbers were staggering:

📊0.77 goals per 90 (91st percentile) 
📊xG: 0.80 per 90 (96th percentile) 
📊52% of shots on target (95th percentile)

What separates him from Salah is role clarity. Salah has to dribble, create, and sometimes track back. Haaland has one job: finish. With Kevin De Bruyne leaving, City have doubled down on creators like Rayan Cherki. 

That means more service, more cutbacks, more through balls. If Haaland is on the pitch, every move still seems designed to end with him. The question isn’t whether Haaland will score. It’s whether he can stay fit. If he plays 35+ games, history suggests he’ll finish north of 30 goals without blinking.

Salah’s experience and penalty edge keep him competitive, but Haaland’s volume advantage puts him as favorite. If fitness holds, the Golden Boot goes back to Manchester. If injuries strike again, Salah has the discipline to snatch it.